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Jack, thank you for your interest on this issue, even after several days/weeks of “discussing” it, and several months of strange behaviours corroborated by several users, including frequent forum users.
The bottom line is that now is AVAST TEAM that has to do the “real” work. Some users have reported their problems and discrepancies. Some other users are disregarding the issue, simply because “it works for them”. Sadly, some users have been more dedicated to trash the relevant topics.
The timing, the cycle, the frequency… Whatever users would like to call it, does not explain the remaining discrepancies.
Avast Team has not really explained the issue. Your “guess” might be correct, and more or less the same concepts have been already written, without any actual confirmation.
That leaves us (Avast’s) users with the “hope” that after 2011JUL11, the tray notifications issues will be completely resolved and not come back.
Unfortunately, the “delays” on tray notifications, whether your assumption is correct or not, can NOT explain the current discrepancies. They are clearly still present even after the program update tray notification is displayed for the availability of the current stable version 6.0.1125.
Whether these discrepancies will continue in the next months and releases, or they will be resolved also by 2011JUL11, together with the tray notification delays, it is YET to be seen.
By now, one can only hope.