Only a meagre 2% of all viruses and other malware that is uploaded to Virustotal.com, is being recognized asmalware by all anti virus scanners. A survey by Consumer Reports into how Virusscanners achieved on unknown malware shows that the best protect against 87%, and that most of the popular scanners block in between 50% & 70%. According to Roger Grimes popular scanners only block 20% of all new threats.
Then he asks himself: Why any longer use an AV solution? : Grimes himself is not using an AV scanner, but takes other security measures to prevent an infection. He transforms all e-mail into flat txt files, blocks most attachments and spam, uses host-based firewalls, patches his sytems and with scrutiny checks all that is changed or installed on his system. Since 1989 he never had a single malware infection.
For the meantime AV solutions serve a function for firms and the not so advanced user, but we have reached a turning-point (closed kernel protection). When AV firms do not improve their products considerably from now, they will cease to exist within 5 years, is Grimes’s prediction.
Not everyone is competent enough to do this (as is mentioned) so would not suit huge numbers of average users.
The same could be said of 5 years ago but her we are with some of the biggest companies still here and not having made significant inroads to protection because the virus writes are either keeping pace or rather the AV companies are trying to keep up.
5 years in computer terms is an absolute eternity and many things will change in that time Operating Systems (what vista is trying to do with UAC, etc.), browsers, for instance, these will/could have a dramatic effect on AV companies as they also adapt to those.
What Grimes doesn’t forecast then is the stink that will be kicked up by the AV industry if OS manufactures try to implement this if there is any hint of anti-trust, like what MS recently said about others playing in the Kernel level and basically they will look after security with MS One Care (spit).
I think 5 years really s too long for any accuracy in forecasting what will be happening in the IT industry.
Good point you have there. One does not read much about the implications of the new MS Vista security schemes for third party security software vendors (Are they to become “hackers?”). It is like all are waiting for the “fait accompli” But the MS people are still a bit hesitant, that is why MS is waiting to present it in this form onto the EC market. It was that they were left so easily off the hook in the States, that they venture on in this direction (browser wars, Media Player issue), and they were also pushed there through those that push strict DRM. These parties only applaud these developments.
Another thing that went well for the fanboys of these schemes, is that Net neutrality has been shot down by legislators in the States, and Big Commerce can scheme easily ahead now (with the excuse of offering a better quality, but at what cost).
Yes there are many other issues that should concern us as well, from the introduction of OS and Program activation to WGA, heavy handed solutions that more directly effect the end user rather than the major software piracy players. By all accounts the WGA hasn’t reduced the estimated piracy levels.
With Blu-Ray and HD-DVD introducing heavy handed solutions to the DRM issue also, so which ever one ends up winning the battle we will still have a draconian anti-piracy measures. Personally I hope that the HD-DVD wins as blu-ray is supported by Sony and we know the underhand methods they are/were prepared to use, the DRM Rootkit issue. I am still boycotting Sony products since that fiasco so I’m really hoping blu-ray doesn’t win the format war.
Agree with you here. MS tried a complete solution in 1991, butfailed to deliver. It is easier now with Internet.
But there is another aspect, the adware and spyware component. Anti malware was so reluctant at first, because they would like your boss to continue spying on you, or the adware boss earn his money by selling you a nice clock or the weather prediction on your desktop. It only brought on more misery, and the one-sidedness at a certain point cannot be avoided.
Big AV are investing in other storage giants or broadening the range of their products. Just imagine a world where everything is MS, OS + MS AV, MS AS, MS FW + MS ID and as secure as when IE5 was introduced, one must not even contemplate such a reality, but some are betting at it.